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3
Markets and opportunities

3.1

Markets and opportunities

If residents in the capital region are to prefer sustainable mobility solutions, these must be developed based on customer needs.

Great variations in the market potential for public transport, cycling and walking in the region suggest that the modes of travel in the overall mobility service will vary between geographic areas and based on journey purposes.

In recent years, technological developments – especially innovations within mobile technology – have led to a shift in how customers communicate and interact. Expectations and demands for tailored and individually adapted products, services and experiences are on the rise. The standard for customer experiences is set across industries and driven by the most innovative actors, globally and locally.

… residents’ need for an efficient and stress free journey is most important when selecting a travel mode.Each person’s choice of a transport solution depends on a number of factors. To reach the goals that have been set, it is crucial that we link in-depth knowledge of the market with knowledge of the needs, attitudes and behaviours of existing and potential customers concerning their selection of mobility solutions.

Not least, it is important to understand which factor lead to an actual change in the selection of travel mode. Travellers choose mobility solutions based on what best meets their individual needs.

Efficiency and reliability affect the choice of travel mode

Studies that Ruter has conducted show that residents’ need for an efficient and stress free journey is most important when selecting a travel mode. The extent to which different alternative modes are expected to be efficient and reliable thus determine how attractive they are.

The need for efficiency and freedom are individual needs and paint a picture of a consumer who is attracted to the travel mode or combination of travel modes that best meets their personal needs from day to day. This can be viewed in the context of social trends toward individualisation. Consumers expect bespoke solutions adapted to specific needs.

The factor that has the greatest impact on residents’ satisfaction with public transport services is the number of departures and the freedom to travel where and when they want in a comfortable and efficient manner. This is also affected by the line network, journey times, wait times during transfers, and walking distance.

Reliability is another key factor. Satisfaction with the service increases in line with punctuality. Information during delays is central to strengthening the perception of punctuality and thus reliability. A coordinated handling of delays provides customers with useful messages about alternative travel options when delays occur. A quick reallocation of resources, good signage and other information must have a standard that enables all customers to easily find their way.

Residents find that short and direct routes provide the most opportunities to travel by public transport. In order for the network of public transport, cycling, walking and other transport modes to appear as an integrated system, it is crucial that it is easy to transfer between the different modes. Not surprisingly, experience shows that travellers are more willing to transfer if distances and wait times are short, there are many alternative transport modes and the same ticket can be used for the entire journey. Walking distance to stops and stations is also important to customer satisfaction.

3.1 Driver analysis (2015)
Environmental friendliness Safety Puchasing process Real-time information Travel information Travel time Walking distance Possibility to travel to my destination Number of depatures Hassle free transfers Reliability Possibility to travel by direct line Wait time at transfers Punctuality Friendliness of personnel Use of the ticketing system Comfort on-board Getting a seat Space on-board Information about delays Fare Low Low High High Satisfaction Relative importance Actual travel time Line network


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Ruter’s new driver analysis shows that fare has less impact on total satisfaction than other issues, including frequency and punctuality. This means that fare changes have less effect on people’s total satisfaction with public transport services than the number of departures, for example.

Changes in satisfaction also affect travel frequency. In the evaluation of a new fare and zone structure (NYPS) in Oslo and Akershus, Urbanet Analyse found that the observed increase in travel in Akershus was largely due to issues other than increased satisfaction with the price of the journey. After NYPS, an increase in travel has taken place among the entire population of Akershus, regardless of the amount of the price change. Experience also shows that other issues, such as quality – both of the public transport service and of competing modes of transport, such as cars – play a more important role. The effect will also vary between different customer segments and be dependent on the type of journey in question.

3.2

A changing mobility landscape

The car has traditionally had an advantage in that it puts personal needs at the centre and has an unmatched ability to meet individual needs for efficiency and independence. In contrast, using public transport has required that users learn and adapt to a set system of mass transit. In the times ahead, the role of the car will be redefined; new mobility solutions will be introduced and the boundaries between individual transport and public transport will change.

Increased urbanisation means that increasing numbers of people live in areas with limited parking. At the same time, public transport services are well developed. The car becomes an unnecessary cost and a limiting lifestyle factor. This development has resulted in a number of young people, in particular, being less interested in owning a car than has traditionally been the case.

Many current customers have grown up with the Internet and being able to establish contact with whomever they want, whenever they want. Technological innovation has facilitated mobility solutions that are less based on owning one’s own means of transport. This has led to the emergence of mobility solutions based on sharing, for example cars and bicycles, where payment is based on use.

3.3

The mobility services must meet individual needs and be created together with the customers

The mobility services must be designed to make life easier for customers. Solutions and systems that are linked to each other will create opportunities to individualise the journey, so that the customer finds that the service is tailored to their own specific needs. In the longer term, technology may make it possible to predict needs and behaviours so that decisions can be automated and the journey can be incorporated as an integrated part of everyday life.

Today’s customer is more than ever online, informed and active. A high rate of innovation and a changing mobility landscape suggest that it will be more important than ever to work with customers to define the mobility solutions of the future. The current approach to passenger transport must be challenged, and the point of departure for change must be the needs of the travellers.

3.4

The market for green mobility in the capital region

Ruter’s primary market currently consists of a region with more than 1.2 million residents and extensive commercial activity. The number of journeys has increased significantly in recent decades. If we look at walking, cycling, public transport and vehicle traffic combined, about 1.3 billion journeys were made in Oslo and Akershus in 2014. Public transport’s share of these journeys is about 23 per cent. In Oslo, 65 per cent of journeys are undertaken by public transport, bicycle or by foot, while the equivalent figure for Akershus is 37 per cent.

In areas with a high market share for public transport and a low share for cars, there are also many people who cycle and walk. It is as important to look at how the combination of public transport, cycling and walking can replace car use, as it is to look at cycling and walking as isolated modes of transport. It is also necessary for the car to find its natural place, while at the same time car use is to constitute a smaller share of the total number of journeys.

3.5

Existing market shares are affected by geography and journey purposes

People in Oslo walk a lot and a large share of all travel is done by public transport. This is especially the case for the inner city. In Akershus, which is more sparsely populated and generally has longer travel distances, the relationship between public transport, cycling, walking and travel by car is different than in Oslo. Compared to other Norwegian counties and urban regions, Akershus nevertheless has a high share of travel by public transport.

There are great variations in the distribution of modes of travel within and between Oslo and Akershus. Personal travel can be divided into four geographic areas: inner Oslo, outer Oslo, regional cities and nearby municipalities, as well as sparsely populated areas in Akershus.

Among residents of inner Oslo, public transport, cycling and walking are popular, with a market share of 82 per cent. For residents of outer Oslo, the market share is 55 per cent, while in nearby municipalities it is 41 per cent and in other municipalities in Akershus it is 31 per cent.

The purpose of the journey has great impact on the choice of travel mode. Journeys in the capital region can be divided according to the following purposes:

  • Journeys to work and school in Oslo
  • Journeys to work and school elsewhere (in regions other than Oslo)
  • Journeys for visits and leisure
  • Journeys for services, shopping, business related travel and journeys with multiple stops/purposes

In total, journeys to work and school represented 29 per cent of all journeys in 2014, while journeys for services, shopping, business related travel and journes with mulitiple stops/purposes accounted for about 44 per cent.

Simply put, travellers use public transport to get to work or to school, walk during their time off in central areas, and drive to shops, kindergarten and meetings. Outside urban areas, the private car has a strong position. Where there is lower residential density and the distances are great, public transport finds it difficult to succeed and the car is clearly the most efficient and flexible means of transport for most purposes.

3.6

Different goals for different markets

In Norway, the share of the population who live in cities or denser areas has increased significantly, and urban cores are more able to retain young adults. Many young people in Oslo are happy without a car. In metropolitan areas in other countries, this change in attitude has formed the basis for new mobility services that use free drivers, seats, cars and bicycles in a far more efficient manner. New technology and intelligent mobility solutions contribute to the development. We assume that this development will continue and be strengthened in the years ahead.

The population growth toward 2020 is expected to be as high as 20 per cent. If we are to succeed in meeting all growth in demand for motorised private travel, then walking, cycling and public transport must achieve an increase of nearly 300 million new journeys from 2014 to 2030.

 

3.5 Market shares in different geographic areas

InnerOsloOuterOsloRegional cities and central areas of AkershusSparsely populated areas of AkershusTotalPublic transportCyclingWalkingTotalCar33%8%41%82%18%37%11%42%90%10%27%5%23%55%45%35%7%24%66%34%19%4%18%41%59%26%5%19%50%50%10%4%17%31%69%10%4%17%31%69%23%5%24%52%48%29%6%25%60%40%GrowthMarket shareNumber of new journeys22%286 mill.25%63 mill.21%91 mill.19%88 mill.26%44 mill.2014203020142030201420302014203020142030
Inner
Oslo
Outer
Oslo
Regional cities and central areas of Akershus Sparsely populated areas of Akershus Total
Number of new journeys 63 mill. 91 mill. 88 mill. 44 mill. 286 mill.
Growth 25 % 21 % 19 % 26 % 22 %
Market share 2014 2030 2014 2030 2014 2030 2014 2030 2014 2030
Public transport 33 % 37 % 27 % 35 % 19 % 26 % 10 % 10 % 23 % 29 %
Cycling 8 % 11 % 5 % 7 % 4 % 5 % 4 % 4 % 5 % 6 %
Walking 41 % 42 % 23 % 24 % 18 % 19 % 17 % 17 % 24 % 25 %
Total 82 % 90 % 55 % 66 % 41 % 50 % 31 % 31 % 52 % 60 %
Car 18 % 10 % 45 % 34 % 59 % 50 % 69 % 69 % 48 % 40 %
Current (2014) and target market shares for 2030
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The dense city expands

Toward 2030, the dense city – which today is found in inner Oslo – is expected to cover more of outer Oslo, and the city centres in the regional cities in Akershus are expected to develop considerable urban characteristics. Shorter distances to important destinations, such as shopping, services and culture, will lead to significant changes in residents’ travel patterns. In the dense city, many people consider public transport to be their natural first choice in most situations. The degree of density will therefore determine where the greatest potential for public transport, cycling and walking can be found in the future.

Cycling and walking will increase

Densification and urbanisation means that increasing numbers of people will cycle and walk. Better and more facilities for bicycle parking, new cycling paths and electric cycles contribute to increasing the share of cycling. We expect that cycling and walking combined will represent about 44 per cent of growth in the period to 2030.

The estimated growth in public transport journeys also contribute to more people walking and cycling in the region. Each journey by public transport entails about 500-1000 metres of walking. Public transport combined with cycling is becoming more common and a further development of bicycle parking near train and metro stations will strengthen this trend.

Inner Oslo will have less car traffic

Most of those who live in inner Oslo already have relatively short distances to important destinations, but with a better public transport service and better infrastructure for walking and cycling, there is nevertheless a potential for 40 per cent growth in public transport. This is ambitious, but also necessary if the overarching goal for public transport, cycling and walking is to be met. With a realistic development of the number of people cycling and walking, the share of car use in inner Oslo will move towards ten per cent – as compared to the current 18 per cent.

Outer Oslo will become more like inner Oslo

The greatest potential for densification can be found in outer Oslo and in denser areas of Akershus. With increased densification in less dense areas of Oslo, the conditions will be in place for the current residents of outer Oslo to develop travel habits that are more similar to the current travel habits of residents of inner Oslo. To achieve a public transport share equivalent to the current share in inner Oslo, there must be a 53 per cent increase in outer Oslo.

The regional cities and central areas of Akershus will become more like Oslo

With a relatively low current share of public transport and an expectation of densification, we assume that the regional cities and central areas of Akershus will have the highest growth in public transport by 2030. If we reach the goal of 69 per cent growth, the public transport share in these areas will reflect the current share in outer Oslo.

Other municipalities in Akershus must maintain current public transport shares

Some densification is expected in other areas of Akershus as well, but at a limited scale. These are the areas where providing a public transport service of a high standard requires the most resources. It is therefore sufficiently ambitious to maintain current market shares for walking, cycling and public transport. This means that the addition of new residents should not increase the market share for the car.

3.6 Number of new journeys in 2030 (in millions)
Journeys to work and school Visits and leisure journeys Shopping and other journeys Shopping and other journeys Visit and leisure travel Journeys to work and school in and to Oslo* 41% -27% 54% -23% 56% -3% 53% -7% 76% -5% 103% 7% 33% 24% 40 20 0 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300 286 Million journeys Growth in individual transport Growth in public transport 160 mill. 33 mill. Inner Oslo Outer Oslo Regional cities andcentral areas inAkershus Sparsely populated areas in Akershus 64 mill. 58 mill. 5 mill. 5 mill. 38 mill. 88 mill. 47 mill. 33 mill. 20 mill. 11 mill. 24 mill. 20 mill. Change in number of journeys Public transport Cycling Walking
The goal for the number of new journeys in 2030, broken down by area and journey purpose. *Journey purpose of work and school in Oslo also includes commuters from Akershus. The geographic totals on the left therefore do not correspond to the totals for journey purpose on the right.
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Public transport becomes attractive for more kinds of journeys

…have to increase the most percentage wise if we are to reach our market targets.Though most journeys will still be to work or school, journeys for visits and leisure as well as journeys for shopping, business related travel, or journeys with multiple stops/purposes will have to increase the most percentage wise if we are to reach our market targets. This is mainly because the effects of densification make public transport more accessible. If we succeed, it will become twice as common to use public transport for shopping and service journeys as it is today. It is important to be aware that there is some dependency between the purpose of a journey and the choice of a mode of transport. The effect of the travel chain is also important: this means that choosing public transport when travelling to work increases the likelihood of using public transport for other purposes, such as going shopping or to kindergarten. Travel to work is most easily influenced by measures that make driving less attractive during rush hours and/or to central locations where parking is limited.

Nearly a third of those who today drive their car to work in Oslo must park their car and start travelling by public transport, and no new motorists must be added. There must be zero growth in travel to work and school in Akershus. If we succeed with this, more people will likely also use public transport for journeys for shopping or services.